Possible scenario
Launch Proceeds
40% Chance
Kalshi's filing survives the initial CFTC review window, helped by the fact that CME withdrew its competing 10-barrel oil futures plan. The outcome extends Kalshi's earlier legal and product momentum while keeping the regulatory fight contained to market structure and contract classification.
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.2%
Tickers
- CME-1.0%
- ICE-0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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