Possible scenario
Russian Retaliation Intensifies
30% Chance
Moscow responds to the new Storm Shadow shipment by expanding strikes against Ukraine's electricity and gas infrastructure. The confrontation remains below direct NATO-Russia conflict, but the risk premium on European security and energy rises.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +1.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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