Possible scenario
Managed Missile Reinforcement
40% Chance
The most likely path is that the UK delivery strengthens Ukraine's ability to disrupt Russian launch sites, depots, and command nodes without producing a sharp escalation. Russia continues attacks on the Ukrainian grid, but Kyiv uses the missiles selectively to protect critical infrastructure and preserve Western political support.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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