Possible scenario
Localized Security Flare-Up
15% Chance
A militant incident or disputed border operation could interrupt the diplomatic track and revive memories of the January 2024 cross-border strikes. Even then, both governments are likely to keep any military action limited because neither wants a sustained conflict.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.3%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.