Possible scenario
Managed Border Reopening
45% Chance
Islamabad and Tehran are likely to contain the dispute because both sides benefit from restoring legal trade and avoiding another military episode like January 2024. Army chief Asim Munir's Tehran visit gives both governments a face-saving channel to align security procedures before reopening.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.1%
- Energy -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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