Talks Without Settlement

25%its chance, of the story’s futures

+0.1%on your S&P 500, if it happens

The rare call with Finland and Norway suggests a narrow diplomatic channel, but Putin’s insistence on all Donbas prevents a full peace deal. Limited agreements on humanitarian or military-risk reduction measures are more plausible than a political settlement.

What it moves

Consumer Cyclicals+0.1%
Industrials−0.1%
Market volatility▼ down
10-year Treasury yield▲ up

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

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