Possible scenario
Larger Russian Offensive
20%
−0.8%
Russia interprets diplomacy as a way to restate its terms while preparing a sharper military push. The risk is elevated because Putin’s demand for the entire Donbas creates pressure to demonstrate progress on the battlefield.
What it moves
- Industrials+1.3%
- Consumer Cyclicals−0.8%
- Market volatility
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs
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