Possible scenario
Enforcement Escalation Wave
20% Chance
The New York case becomes part of a wider enforcement campaign against unregistered or insufficiently geofenced prediction markets. This outcome is plausible given the earlier FBI seizure, CFTC rulemaking, and JPMorgan’s decision to cut ties.
Initial impacts
- Bitcoin Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.3%
- Technology -0.1%
Tickers
- HOOD-1.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.