Possible scenario
Export Controls Tighten
15% Chance
A less likely but material risk is that the U.S. and Dutch governments tighten restrictions on advanced semiconductor equipment exports to China. ASML's leading-edge AI exposure remains strong, but investors reassess the durability of Chinese sales and service revenue.
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.7%
Tickers
- ASML-3.3%
- LRCX-1.8%
- AMAT-1.7%
- KLAC-1.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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