Possible scenario
AI Upcycle Extends
45% Chance
ASML's record Q3 sales and higher FY26 revenue outlook are most likely interpreted as confirmation that AI accelerator demand is still driving leading-edge semiconductor capacity additions. The strongest follow-through would come from continued EUV and high-NA EUV orders tied to TSMC, Samsung, Intel, and advanced packaging-linked capacity plans.
Secondary impacts
- Technology +0.7%
Tickers
- ASML+4.0%
- AMAT+1.6%
- LRCX+1.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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