Possible scenario
Trump Strategy Splits
30% Chance
Republicans continue to center the closing argument on Trump, but the political payoff varies by state. Some nominees welcome the rallies while others try to keep attention on inflation, crime, and local issues.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Up
- Market volatility Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.3%
- Finance +0.1%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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