Possible scenario
GOP Tour Gains
38% Chance
The Oklahoma dash reinforces the Republican decision to make Trump the closing-week centerpiece of the midterm campaign. Large crowds and earned media help GOP turnout operations in red and Republican-leaning competitive states.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.4%
- Finance +0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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