Possible scenario
Tariff Line Hardens
25% Chance
Trump uses the endorsement to reassert ownership of the Canada tariff policy and pressures Rogers not to weaken it. This would revive concerns that the US-Canada trade dispute remains durable despite local Republican objections.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals -1.3%
- Non-Energy Materials -1.0%
- Industrials -0.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.