Possible scenario
Rogers Moderates Tariffs
20% Chance
Rogers turns the endorsement into leverage for a carveout-based compromise, arguing that Michigan voters support Trump but reject higher costs on cross-border production. This is plausible because Trump has already recast Rogers' stance as pressure on Canada rather than disloyalty.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals +1.0%
- Industrials +0.6%
- Non-Energy Materials +0.4%
Tickers
- +1.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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