Possible scenario
Political Concessions
20% Chance
Rama attempts to defuse the crisis through visible concessions while preserving his premiership. A ministerial resignation, budget pledge, or anti-corruption inquiry could split moderate student groups from more confrontational protesters.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.3%
- Finance +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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