Possible scenario
Containment and Talks
38% Chance
The most likely near-term outcome is that Edi Rama refuses to resign but shifts to containment, combining heavier policing with talks on education funding, tuition, and corruption allegations. Fires and riots remain serious but do not break state control, and the government tries to isolate violent groups from broader student organizers.
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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