Direct Escalation
−0.6%
A lower-probability but higher-impact path is that new evidence, another plot, or a confrontation involving Iranian-linked assets forces a sharper UK-US response. Even then, the most plausible escalation remains limited rather than a full regional war.
What it moves
- Industrials+1.7%
- Consumer Services−0.8%
- Market volatility
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs
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