Militant Security Attack

The most likely path is that Iranian authorities attribute the blast to Baluch separatist or jihadist militants, potentially Jaish al-Adl, given Zahedan's history of unrest and prior Iran-Pakistan strikes. The event remains primarily a domestic security incident unless casualties are high or cross-border links are substantiated.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.