Possible scenario
Execution-Linked Unrest
25% Chance
Because the blast follows the execution of two protesters tied to security-force deaths, authorities may frame it as part of renewed anti-state unrest. Zahedan's legacy from the 2022 Bloody Friday killings makes protest contagion a plausible domestic path.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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