• 

  

  7%

  −1.0%

  U.S. government civil action against Jerome Powell or the Federal Reserve

  A contained challenge to Federal Reserve independence produces a broad risk-off move: equities fall 1% over 20 days, erasing $960B in covered value. Technology and Finance absorb the largest dollar losses, while Healthcare and Consumer Non-Cyclicals are relatively resilient rather than outright winners. The split reflects weaker risk appetite, 30 bp wider credit spreads, and softer confidence.

  Finance −1.2% · Technology −1.1% · Industrials −1.1%

• 

  

  3%

  −5.2%

  Formal binding U.S. governance action impairing Powell’s Federal Reserve role

  A direct challenge to Federal Reserve independence raises inflation fears, borrowing costs and risk premiums, driving the broad equity market down 5% and erasing $4.80T over 20 days. Technology loses most, while Energy is the strongest relative shelter because its decline is limited to 2.7%.

  Technology −6.3% · Consumer Cyclicals −5.1% · Industrials −5.0%

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if it happens. For information only. Not investment advice.