Possible scenario
Western Guarantees Shift
20% Chance
Washington and European capitals respond to the delay by trying to lock in security guarantees first offered in late 2025. The diplomatic center of gravity shifts from immediate talks with Moscow to the credibility and funding of Ukraine's long-term defense package.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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