Possible scenario
Military Escalation
25% Chance
The Kremlin converts the election-day drone incidents into a rationale for retaliation and a harder negotiating posture. Ukraine continues long-range attacks to show that delaying talks will not halt pressure on Russian territory.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +1.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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