From todayRegional War Triggers 22% Drop in Emirates Group’s First-Half Passenger Traffic

• 

  38%

  +0.2%

  Managed Recovery Path

  The most likely path is a gradual normalization of Gulf flight corridors without a full political settlement. Emirates Group rebuilds capacity through Dubai International Airport while keeping contingency routing and higher crew-buffer costs in place.

  Consumer Services +1.4% · Industrials +0.4% · Consumer Cyclicals +0.1%

• 

  30%

  −0.6%

  Prolonged Airspace Friction

  Regional fighting continues at a level that prevents a clean restoration of Gulf airspace. Airlines avoid certain corridors, operate longer routes and face weaker booking visibility into the peak winter and spring travel periods.

  Consumer Services −2.9% · Industrials −0.8% · Finance −0.2%

• 

  20%

  −1.5%

  Renewed Gulf Escalation

  A fresh round of strikes or missile threats forces Gulf states to impose emergency airspace restrictions. This would turn the Emirates traffic decline from a backward-looking operating hit into a live geopolitical market risk.

  Consumer Services −3.7% · Energy +2.8% · Industrials −1.3%

• 

  12%

  +0.9%

  Ceasefire Demand Rebound

  A diplomatic breakthrough reduces perceived airspace risk and triggers a faster recovery in bookings through Dubai. This is less likely than partial normalization because military and political incentives still make a durable settlement difficult.

  Consumer Services +2.4% · Energy −1.7% · Industrials +0.6%