Possible scenario
Saudi Retaliation Intensifies
18% Chance
Riyadh responds to the Dammam incident and the prior Riyadh airport strike with expanded air operations against Houthi missile and drone facilities. This reduces the chance of near-term negotiations and raises the probability of tit-for-tat attacks, but the immediate market effect depends on whether retaliation remains geographically contained.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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