Possible scenario
Houthi Campaign Broadens
28% Chance
The projectile near Dammam is followed by further Houthi statements or launches against Saudi airports and energy-adjacent infrastructure. The pattern from Yanbu, Abha, Riyadh, and Dammam suggests a coordinated campaign to raise the economic cost for Riyadh after its rejection of a truce.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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