Possible scenario
Risk-On Rebound Extends
38% Chance
The intraday reversal holds as investors treat the prior AI selloff as overextended. Stabilizing yields and positioning ahead of Big Tech results keep buyers focused on profitable megacap technology names.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Bitcoin Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology +1.0%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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