Possible scenario
Protracted Federal Trial
38% Chance
The most likely path is a slow federal criminal case with extensive discovery, classified-material disputes, witness-protection issues, and motions over jurisdiction. Maduro and Cilia Flores maintain not-guilty pleas while prosecutors try to build a torture case tied to Venezuelan security services.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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