Possible scenario
Negotiated Plea Deal
27% Chance
A plea bargain becomes plausible if prosecutors want testimony, asset-recovery cooperation, or a faster resolution than a complex trial. Maduro and Flores would likely seek sharply reduced prison exposure in exchange for admissions, forfeitures, or information about Venezuelan state networks.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.1%
Tickers
- CVX+0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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