Possible scenario
Limited Saudi Response
27% Chance
Saudi Arabia concludes that a public response is needed to restore deterrence after the Medina grid attack. The response stays bounded, relying on air-defense deployments, targeted strikes, or interdiction rather than a broad Yemen campaign.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.5%
- Energy +0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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