Possible scenario
No Truce Holds
45% Chance
Moscow maintains pressure on Ukraine's sea corridor while avoiding a step that would trigger direct NATO involvement. Turkey, the UN and insurers keep the route partly functioning, but shipping costs and war-risk premiums stay elevated.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.3%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.1%
- Consumer Services -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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