Possible scenario
Escalation And Retaliation
20% Chance
Russia's rejection is followed by additional attacks or legal retaliation by the G-7 over frozen Russian assets. The dispute shifts from negotiation to coercion, increasing near-term geopolitical risk and shipping uncertainty.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +1.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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