Possible scenario
National Protest Escalation
20% Chance
The shooting and Mamdani's response trigger larger demonstrations against ICE in multiple cities. Most protests remain peaceful, but the issue becomes a short-term national flashpoint and slightly lifts risk aversion.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.2%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.