Possible scenario
Blue-State Coalition
25% Chance
Governor Kathy Hochul and New York Democrats align more closely with Mamdani after the shooting, reviving efforts to terminate or narrow state and local agreements with ICE. The result is a state-level political push rather than a realistic path to abolishing the federal agency.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Business Services -0.3%
Tickers
- GEO-2.8%
- CXW-2.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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