Possible scenario
Federal Capital Case
42% Chance
The most likely path is that the Trump administration turns the order into a formal Justice Department capital authorization tied to the Idaho firefighter ambush. The U.S. Attorney's Office for the District of Idaho proceeds cautiously because defense lawyers will argue that public presidential direction taints the prosecution.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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