Possible scenario
Managed Hormuz Disruption
40% Chance
Iran keeps the Strait of Hormuz constrained, but the US Fifth Fleet, Oman, Qatar, and shipping insurers create a limited escort and routing framework. The market treats the EIA's $98 Brent forecast as a credible baseline rather than a worst case, keeping a durable risk premium in crude without triggering a full crisis repricing.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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