Possible scenario
Diplomatic Reopening
25% Chance
Omani and Qatari mediation breaks the sequencing deadlock that stalled US-Iran talks. A narrow maritime deconfliction deal does not resolve the underlying dispute, but it reduces the probability of a sustained blockade and pulls part of the crude risk premium out of the market.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy -2.1%
- Consumer Services +1.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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