From todayHurricane Nolo Threatens Big Island With Catastrophic Flooding 5 Weeks After Lala

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  38%

  −0.1%

  Severe Big Island Landfall

  Nolo comes ashore on or very near the Big Island while still a strong hurricane, producing destructive winds, flash flooding, landslides, and extended power outages. The repeated hit after Lala strains local emergency capacity and pushes insurers, banks, utilities, airlines, and tourism operators into immediate loss-assessment mode.

  Consumer Services −1.0% · Utilities −0.7% · Finance −0.5%

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  30%

  −0.1%

  Prolonged Near Miss

  Nolo avoids a direct landfall but tracks close enough to keep the Big Island under persistent rain bands and tropical-storm-force winds. This outcome reduces wind damage compared with a direct hit but still creates dangerous flooding and multi-day travel disruption.

  Consumer Services −0.7% · Utilities −0.4% · Finance −0.2%

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  22%

  0.0%

  Offshore Turn Relief

  Nolo turns away before delivering its forecast worst-case hit, allowing officials to downgrade warnings and reopen transport links quickly. Because markets had begun pricing a costly repeat disaster after Lala, this scenario produces a modest relief rally in Hawaii-linked equities and travel exposure.

  Consumer Services +0.5% · Utilities +0.3% · Finance +0.2%

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  10%

  −0.1%

  Wider Island Disruption

  Instead of moving cleanly past the Big Island, Nolo’s path brings damaging rain, high surf, and transport disruption across multiple Hawaiian islands. The market impact broadens from a Big Island event to a statewide tourism, shipping, utility, and banking concern.

  Consumer Services −1.1% · Utilities −0.5% · Industrials −0.4%