Possible scenario
Limited Grid Damage
22% Chance
Initial damage reports may overstate the lasting impact if substations and transmission links remain usable. Ukrainian grid operators have become more experienced at rerouting power and restoring service after repeated Russian strikes.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
Secondary impacts
- Utilities +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.