Possible scenario
Rolling Power Crisis
38% Chance
The most likely path is that Ukraine stabilizes the grid but cannot avoid extended scheduled outages in Kyiv region. Repeated Russian attacks on generation assets, combined with Patriot interceptor shortages, make repairs vulnerable to follow-on strikes.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.5%
- Utilities -0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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