Possible scenario
Houthi Escalation
23% Chance
The Houthis use the footage as proof of government and Saudi-backed brutality, strengthening their justification for retaliation. The most market-sensitive path is renewed pressure on Red Sea shipping lanes or Saudi energy infrastructure, though the base case remains contained escalation.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.2%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.