Possible scenario
Annexation Rift Deepens
25% Chance
The short readout could signal U.S. irritation over Israeli annexation politics after earlier rebukes from Trump and Vance. Washington may issue sharper warnings if Netanyahu’s coalition lets West Bank measures advance.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- US dollar Up
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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