Possible scenario
Iran File Dominates
20% Chance
Given Rubio’s expulsion of the Iranian U.N. delegation two weeks earlier, the short readout may conceal sensitive coordination on Iran. The most likely outcome is signaling and deterrence rather than immediate military action.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.4%
- Consumer Services -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.