Possible scenario
Russian Retaliation Broadens
20% Chance
Moscow responds to the German-Ukrainian package with kinetic or hybrid pressure against Ukrainian logistics, production sites or German-linked suppliers. This would be a material geopolitical escalation relative to the aid announcement, but still short of a direct NATO-Russia clash.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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