Possible scenario
Aid Deal Advances
45% Chance
Germany and Ukraine convert the more than €8.5 billion package into signed procurement, reconstruction and industrial cooperation contracts. This is the base case because Berlin has already locked in a long-term security pact with Kyiv and the Merz government is presenting Ukraine support as a strategic industrial policy priority.
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.6%
- Technology +0.2%
- Non-Energy Materials +0.1%
- Utilities +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.