Possible scenario
Contained Terror Case
30% Chance
The bail decision reflects procedure rather than exoneration, and investigators continue building a terrorism case. Officials describe the threat as contained, with no evidence that UK transport or major public venues are targeted.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.7%
- Consumer Services -0.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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