Possible scenario
Foreign Link Emerges
15% Chance
UK security officials find indicators of foreign assistance, financing, or tasking behind the alleged plot. The case shifts from domestic counterterrorism toward a NATO security issue, especially because RAF Fairford hosts US bomber operations.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +2.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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