Possible scenario
Extended Refinery Outage
30% Chance
The attack causes meaningful damage to processing units, storage tanks, or power systems, forcing Aramco to run the Riyadh refinery below normal capacity. The shock is material for refined products and regional risk pricing, though still short of a systemic oil-supply crisis unless exports are affected.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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