Possible scenario
Damage Contained
45% Chance
Saudi authorities contain the fire quickly and report limited operational disruption at the Riyadh refinery. This is the most likely path because prior Houthi attacks have often caused temporary damage without removing large volumes of Saudi crude or products from global markets.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.2%
- Consumer Services -0.4%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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