Prolonged Naval Standoff

its chance, of the story’s futures

−0.6%on the S&P 500, if it happens

The most durable middle path is a tense but contained standoff: the U.S. keeps Iranian oil exports choked off, while Iran avoids a step that would trigger a large U.S. strike. Shipping costs remain elevated and China continues pressing for exemptions or gray-market workarounds.

What it moves

Energy+1.5%
Industrials−0.8%
Riskier companies' borrowing costs▲ up
Market volatility▲ up

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

Prolonged Naval Standoff

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