War Grinds On

45%its chance, of the story’s futures

−0.3%on the S&P 500, if it happens

The most likely outcome is that Moscow keeps rejecting an immediate ceasefire while using talks with Nordic leaders to manage diplomatic pressure. Front lines remain largely static, with Russia pressing incremental gains and Ukraine relying on European and U.S. military aid.

What it moves

Industrials+0.6%
Consumer Cyclicals−0.3%
Market volatility▲ up
Riskier companies' borrowing costs▲ up

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

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